Vital Statistics and Population Trends: A Century of Demographic Change
Analyzing vital statistics—the data regarding births, deaths, and population shifts—provides a window into the health and growth of a society. By examining trends from 1921 through 2025, we can observe how a population evolves through periods of natural increase and decline, reflecting broader socio-economic changes.
At the core of these statistics are the Crude Birth Rate and Crude Death Rate. These terms refer to the number of live births or deaths per 1,000 people in a given year. The difference between these two figures results in the Natural Change, which indicates whether a population is growing or shrinking independently of migration.
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Key Facts
- Population Growth: The average population grew from 52,016 in 1921 to a projected 84,975 by 2025.
- Birth Rate Trends: The crude birth rate peaked early in the century (16.5 in 1921) and has seen a steady decline to 7.0 by 2022.
- Natural Change: The population experienced significant periods of negative natural change, particularly between 1934–1941 and 1951–1997.
- Aging Population: The percentage of the population aged 65+ increased from 20.65% in the first recorded structure to 22.09% in the later recording.
- Gender Distribution: In the most recent detailed structure, females slightly outnumber males, with 42,428 females compared to 41,641 males.
Analysis of Vital Statistics (1921–2025)
The demographic journey began in 1921 with a population of 52,016 and a positive natural change of 49. However, the mid-1930s saw a shift toward decline, with natural change dropping as low as -177 in 1937.
Mid-Century Fluctuations
The 1940s brought a brief period of recovery. In 1942, the population reached 53,000 with a natural increase of 63. This trend continued into the early 1950s, peaking in 1950 with a natural change of 87. However, this was followed by a prolonged era of decline starting in 1951, where deaths consistently outnumbered births for several decades.
Modern Trends and Projections
A notable shift occurred in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Between 2002 and 2012, the population saw consistent positive natural change, peaking in 2009 with an increase of 199. Despite this, the most recent data from 2020 to 2025 indicates a return to negative natural change, with 2024 showing a significant deficit of -351.
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Population Structure and Age Distribution
The structure of the population reveals a significant aging trend. The workforce-age group (15–64) remains the largest segment, but the proportion of elderly citizens is rising.
Comparative Age Groups
Comparing two snapshots of the population structure shows a contraction in the youngest demographics. The 0–4 age group dropped from 4.97% to 4.14% of the total population. Conversely, the 65+ category grew from 20.65% to 22.09%, signaling an aging society.
The most populous age bracket in the recent data is the 55–59 group, comprising 7.99% of the total population, followed closely by the 50–54 group at 7.91%.
| Metric | Early Period (Approx.) | Recent Period (Approx.) |
|---|---|---|
| Average Population | 52,016 (1921) | 84,975 (2025 proj.) |
| Crude Birth Rate | 16.5 (1921) | 7.0 (2022) |
| Population 0–14 (%) | 16.02% | 14.89% |
| Population 65+ (%) | 20.65% | 22.09% |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the difference between crude birth rate and natural change?
The crude birth rate is the number of live births per 1,000 people. Natural change is the net result of subtracting the number of deaths from the number of live births in a population.
When did the population experience the most significant natural decline?
Based on the data, some of the most significant declines occurred in the late 1970s (e.g., -344 in 1978) and more recently in 2024, which saw a natural change of -351.
Is the population getting older?
Yes. The data shows the 65+ age group increasing from 20.65% to 22.09%, while the 0–14 age group decreased from 16.02% to 14.89%.
How has the total population changed since 1921?
The total average population has grown steadily from 52,016 in 1921 to a projected 84,975 by 2025.
Which age group currently represents the largest portion of the population?
The 15–64 age group is the largest overall, making up 63.03% of the population in the most recent structural data.