By-Election Results Analysis (1999–2019)
By-elections serve as critical indicators of political momentum, reflecting shifts in voter sentiment between general elections. This analysis examines a series of by-election results spanning two decades, from 1999 to 2019, detailing the performance of major political parties and the emergence of independent candidates.
The data reveals a complex landscape of political swing—the percentage shift in voter support from one party to another—and varying levels of turnout, which refers to the percentage of eligible voters who cast a ballot.
Key Facts
- The Conservative Party secured multiple holds and gains across the observed periods.
- The Liberal Democrats maintained strong presence in early cycles but saw fluctuations in later years.
- UKIP (UK Independence Party) and the Green Party appeared as notable third-party contenders starting in the 2003–2007 cycle.
- Turnout rates varied significantly, ranging from as low as 15.44% to as high as 32.77%.
- Independent candidates achieved a notable victory in the 2015–2019 period.
Detailed Election Breakdowns
1999–2003 Cycle
This period was characterized by tight contests and shifts between the three primary parties. In one instance, Howard Henning of the Conservatives gained a seat from the Liberal Democrats with a narrow majority of 22 votes. Other results saw holds for the Liberal Democrats (Jean Littlewood) and Labour (Janice Hurne).
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2003–2007 Cycle
The 2003–2007 period saw the introduction of UKIP and the Green Party into the race. The Conservatives maintained a strong hold with Lynda Price, while the Liberal Democrats successfully held seats via Benedict Prescott and Patricia Lewis. A significant gain was recorded by Nicholas King (Conservative), who won with a substantial majority of 929 votes.
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2007–2011 Cycle
Conservative dominance continued during this window, with Cheryl Anne Johnson, Douglas Lloyd Barton Spencer, and Richard Powell all securing holds. This period also saw the participation of the Labour Co-op and the BNP (British National Party).
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2011–2015 Cycle
The 2011–2015 results were marked by fragmented vote shares. In one contest, David d’Orton-Gibson (Conservative) held the seat with a slim majority of 136 votes amidst a field of eight candidates. Other holds were secured by Gill Seymour and Pat Oakley.
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2015–2019 Cycle
The final period analyzed shows a rise in independent influence. While the Conservatives held seats through Norman Decent, Roger Marley, and John Perkins, Kieron Wilson secured an independent hold with a majority of 22 votes over the Conservative candidate.
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Summary of Election Outcomes
| Period | Winning Candidate | Party | Outcome | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999–2003 | Howard Henning | Conservative | Gain | 23.2% |
| 2003–2007 | Nicholas King | Conservative | Gain | 25.9% |
| 2007–2011 | Richard Powell | Conservative | Hold | 31.76% |
| 2011–2015 | David d’Orton-Gibson | Conservative | Hold | 32.77% |
| 2015–2019 | Kieron Wilson | Independent | Hold | 17.03% |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a political swing?
A political swing is the percentage shift in voter support from one political party to another between two different elections.
Which party had the most consistent success in these by-elections?
The Conservative Party demonstrated the most consistency, securing numerous holds and gains across all five time periods analyzed.
How did voter turnout fluctuate over time?
Turnout was inconsistent, peaking at 32.77% in the 2011–2015 period and dipping as low as 15.44% in another contest during the same cycle.
Did any non-major parties win seats?
Yes, an Independent candidate (Kieron Wilson) successfully held a seat during the 2015–2019 period.
Which parties besides the big three competed in these elections?
Other competing groups included UKIP, the Green Party, the BNP, the Liberal Party, and the Bournemouth Independent Alliance.