By-Election Results Analysis (1999-2019)
By-elections serve as critical indicators of shifting political sentiment between general election cycles. These special elections are triggered by the resignation or death of a sitting councillor, requiring the constituency to elect a new representative. The following analysis examines the electoral trends and outcomes from 1999 through 2019, highlighting the competitive dynamics between major parties and independent movements.
Key Facts
- Liberal Democrats maintained a strong presence, holding seats in 1999, 2003, and 2007, and gaining a seat in 2015.
- Conservatives held seats in 2007 and 2011, though they lost a seat to the Liberal Democrats in 2015.
- Poole People, a local political group, successfully gained a seat from the Conservatives during the 2007-2011 period.
- Voter Turnout fluctuated significantly, ranging from a low of approximately 17.37% to a high of 37.23%.
- The 2015-2019 period saw the largest majority recorded in this dataset, with Vikki Slade winning by 1,451 votes.
Detailed Election Breakdown
1999-2003 Period
Triggered by the resignations of Cllr Andrew Muspratt and Cllr Marian Mackenzie, this period saw the Liberal Democrats maintain their hold. Sandra Moore and Jeff Allen secured the highest vote counts, with Moore receiving 1,825 votes and Allen receiving 1,747. The Conservative candidates, Peter Bowler and Roy Oakton, followed closely with 1,649 and 1,645 votes respectively. Turnout for this period was 33.5%.
[ไม่มีภาพประกอบ]
2003-2007 Period
Following the resignation of Cllr Bob Dugdale, the Liberal Democrats held the seat with a decisive victory. Candidate Lindsay Wilson secured 58.4% of the vote (1,392 votes), marking an 11.4% increase. The Conservatives, led by Wendy Herring, saw a decrease of 13.7%, finishing with 22.1% of the vote. Turnout was 30.3%.
2007-2011 Period
This era was marked by high volatility and multiple contests due to the death of Cllr Mary Hillman and the resignations of Cllr Daniel Martin and Cllr Michael Plummer.
- Conservative Hold: Karen Rampton won with 55.2% of the vote (923 votes) following Cllr Hillman's death.
- Liberal Democrat Hold: Jo Clements secured 48.3% of the vote (809 votes) following Cllr Daniel Martin's resignation.
- Poole People Gain: In a significant shift following Cllr Michael Plummer's resignation, Mark Howell of Poole People won with 463 votes, gaining the seat from the Conservatives by a narrow majority of 25 votes.
[ไม่มีภาพประกอบ]
2011-2015 Period
Triggered by the resignation of Cllr Stephen Rollo-Smith, the Conservatives successfully held the seat. Jane Thomas won with 553 votes, maintaining a majority of 199 over the Liberal Democrats' Jenny Paton (254 votes). Turnout for this contest was 27.58%.
2015-2019 Period
The most recent data in this series follows the resignation of Cllr Joanne Tomlin. The Liberal Democrats achieved a significant gain from the Conservatives. Vikki Slade won overwhelmingly with 2,184 votes, resulting in a majority of 1,451. Turnout reached a peak of 37.23%.
Election Summary Table
| Period | Winning Candidate | Winning Party | Outcome | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999-2003 | Sandra Moore / Jeff Allen | Liberal Democrats | Hold | 33.5% |
| 2003-2007 | Lindsay Wilson | Liberal Democrats | Hold | 30.3% |
| 2007-2011 | Karen Rampton / Jo Clements / Mark Howell | Mixed | Hold / Gain | Variable |
| 2011-2015 | Jane Thomas | Conservative | Hold | 27.58% |
| 2015-2019 | Vikki Slade | Liberal Democrats | Gain | 37.23% |
Frequently Asked Questions
Which party had the most successful hold/gain record in these by-elections?
The Liberal Democrats showed the most consistency, holding multiple seats across different periods and achieving a significant gain from the Conservatives in the 2015-2019 cycle.
What was the lowest recorded turnout among the listed elections?
The lowest turnout occurred during the 2007-2011 period, specifically in the contest won by Mark Howell of Poole People, where turnout was 17.37%.
Did any independent or minor parties win a seat?
Yes, the Poole People party successfully gained a seat from the Conservatives during the 2007-2011 period with candidate Mark Howell.
What caused the by-elections in these periods?
The by-elections were triggered by a combination of councillor resignations (such as those of Andrew Muspratt, Bob Dugdale, and Joanne Tomlin) and the deaths of sitting councillors (such as Mary Hillman and Brian Leverett).
Who achieved the largest majority of votes?
Vikki Slade of the Liberal Democrats achieved the largest majority in the 2015-2019 period, winning by 1,451 votes.