Democratic Backsliding: Causes, Trends, and Global Manifestations

Democratic backsliding is a specific form of autocratization—the structural transition of a government from a democracy toward authoritarianism. In this process, the exercise of political power becomes increasingly arbitrary, repressive, and less limited by law. This shift typically restricts the space for public contest and limits political participation in how a government is selected.

At its core, backsliding involves the systematic weakening of democratic institutions. This may manifest as the erosion of free and fair elections, the disruption of the peaceful transition of power, or the violation of fundamental individual rights, most notably the freedom of expression.

Hitler gives a speech to the Reichstag in support of the Enabling Act. The collapse of the Weimar Republic into Nazi Germany is perhaps the most infamous example of democratic backsliding.[35]

Key Facts

Definition: A process where democratic institutions are weakened and political power becomes more arbitrary.
Modern Trend: Since 2010, the number of countries autocratizing has exceeded those democratizing.
Primary Drivers: Economic inequality, populism, and the rise of personalist leaders are major contributors.
Historical Shift: While Cold War-era backsliding often occurred via coups, modern backsliding frequently happens through elected leaders dismantling systems from within.
Vulnerability: Democracies established during the "third wave" of democratization in the late 20th century are often the most susceptible.

The Mechanics of Democratic Decline

Democratic backsliding does not always happen overnight. It often occurs through several distinct forms:

Executive Aggrandizement: When elected executives weaken checks on their power through legal or institutional means.
Incremental Election Subversion: The gradual degradation of free and fair elections to ensure the ruling party remains in power.
Promissory Coups: Military takeovers that claim to be temporary measures intended to "restore" democracy.

Since c. 2010, the number of countries autocratizing (blue) has been higher than those democratizing (yellow).[1]

Causes and Drivers of Autocratization

Economic and Social Pressures

Economic inequality is strongly associated with democratic backsliding in the 21st century, appearing even in wealthy nations. Other contributing factors include high unemployment, "culture wars," and conservative reactions to rapid societal changes. Additionally, social issues such as loneliness and extreme polarization can create fertile ground for autocratic appeals.

Populism and Personalism

Populism often drives backsliding by challenging the legitimacy of established political, cultural, and economic powers. Populist leaders typically present themselves as "maverick outsiders" who claim to be the sole voice of the vox populi (voice of the people). This often leads to personalism, where power is concentrated in a single individual rather than in institutions.

Crisis and External Influence

During states of emergency—such as the COVID-19 pandemic—leaders may impose autocratic rules. Backsliding occurs when these measures are disproportionate to the crisis or remain in effect long after the emergency has passed. Furthermore, great power politics and external international influences can pressure smaller democracies toward authoritarianism.

Countries autocratizing (red) or democratizing (blue) substantially and significantly (2010–2020), according to the V-Dem Democracy indices. Countries in grey are substantially unchanged.[76]

Global Prevalence and Trends

The "third wave of autocratization" has been ongoing since 2010, following the Great Recession. While the number of liberal democracies reached an all-time high prior to this, recent years have seen a significant reversal.

Global trend report Bertelsmann Transformation Index 2022[81]

Table 1: Examples of Countries Experiencing Democratic Backsliding

Country	Backsliding Since	Ruling Group or Person
Hungary	2010	Fidesz (Viktor Orbán)
India	2014	Bharatiya Janata Party (Narendra Modi)
Turkey	2013	Justice and Development Party (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)
El Salvador	2019	Nuevas Ideas (Nayib Bukele)
Mexico	2020	Morena (Andrés Manuel López Obrador / Claudia Sheinbaum)
United States	2025	Republican Party (Donald Trump)

Frequently Asked Questions

How does modern backsliding differ from the Cold War era?

During the Cold War, democratic collapse most frequently occurred through sudden military coups. In contrast, contemporary backsliding typically occurs through the election of personalist leaders or parties who use their legal mandate to dismantle democratic institutions from the inside.

What is the role of economic inequality in this process?

Economic inequality is a strong correlate of democratic backsliding in the 21st century. It can fuel resentment and make populations more susceptible to populist rhetoric that promises radical change by dismantling existing political structures.

Can democratic backsliding be reversed?

Yes. Data indicates that more than half of all autocratization episodes between 1900 and 2023 followed a "U-turn" shape, meaning the period of autocratization was closely followed by a return to democratization.

What are the primary warning signs of backsliding?

Key indicators include the degradation of free and fair elections, attacks on the freedom of expression, the erosion of judicial independence, and the concentration of power within the executive branch.