Tobique—Mactaquac Federal Election Results and Historical Trends
The electoral history of Tobique—Mactaquac reflects a dynamic political landscape, characterized by shifts between the Conservative and Liberal parties. As a key riding in the Canadian federal system, its results provide insight into regional voting patterns and the evolving influence of third parties such as the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Green Party.
A representation order is a legal instrument used to redefine the boundaries of electoral districts to account for population changes, ensuring equitable representation. Over the decades, Tobique—Mactaquac has undergone several such adjustments, including gaining territory from Fredericton and losing territory to Miramichi—Grand Lake prior to the 42nd federal election.
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Key Facts
- Dominant Party: The Conservative Party has maintained a strong presence, with Richard Bragdon securing a significant victory in recent cycles.
- Recent Performance: In the most recent recorded data under the 2023 order, Richard Bragdon won with 58.79% of the vote.
- Voter Engagement: Turnout has seen fluctuations, reaching 74.30% in the latest results.
- Financials: Campaign expenditures vary widely, from over $52,000 for winning candidates to $0 for some minor party representatives.
- Historical Shifts: The riding has transitioned through various representation orders (1996, 2003, 2013, and 2023) to reflect demographic changes.
Detailed Election Analysis
The 2023 Representation Order Results
Under the 2023 representation order, the Conservative candidate Richard Bragdon secured a decisive win with 23,322 votes (58.79%), marking a 5.97% increase. The Liberal candidate, Julian Moulton, followed with 14,226 votes (35.86%), showing a notable increase of 13.21%.
Minor parties saw a decline in support. The New Democratic Party (Michael John Winter) and the Green Party (Liam MacDougall) both hovered around 2%, while the People's Party (Vern Brundle) received 1.26% of the vote. The total turnout for this period was 74.30%, with 39,870 voters participating out of 53,660 eligible voters.
Historical Performance and Shifts
Looking back at the 2013 representation order, Richard Bragdon also held the seat with 50.98% of the vote. However, the riding has seen volatility in the past. For instance, T. J. Harvey of the Liberal Party achieved a significant gain in a previous cycle, winning with 46.61% of the vote and creating a swing of +27.75%.
Earlier records from the 2003 representation order show Mike Allen as a dominant Conservative figure, winning multiple terms with percentages ranging from 43.79% to 62.70%. The early 2000s were marked by a tight race between the Progressive Conservatives, Liberals, and the Canadian Alliance.
Comparative Election Data
The following table summarizes the results across different representation orders to highlight the shift in party dominance and voter participation.
| Order/Period | Winning Candidate | Winning Party | Vote % | Turnout % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Order | Richard Bragdon | Conservative | 58.79% | 74.30% |
| 2013 Order | Richard Bragdon | Conservative | 50.98% | 62.00% |
| 2003 Order | Mike Allen | Conservative | 62.70% | 63.91% |
| 1996 Order | Andy Savoy | Liberal | 33.60% | N/A |
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the most recent winning candidate for Tobique—Mactaquac?
The most recent winning candidate is Richard Bragdon of the Conservative Party, who received 23,322 votes (58.79%) under the 2023 representation order.
What was the voter turnout in the latest election?
The turnout was 74.30%, with 39,870 people voting out of 53,660 eligible voters.
How has the riding's boundary changed over time?
The riding has been adjusted through several representation orders. Specifically, for the 42nd federal election, it gained territory from Fredericton and lost territory to Miramichi—Grand Lake.
Which parties typically compete in this riding?
The primary competition is between the Conservative and Liberal parties, though the New Democratic Party, Green Party, and People's Party also regularly field candidates.
What is a 'notional hold' in the context of these results?
A notional hold occurs when a party retains a seat after boundary changes (redistribution), based on the estimated results of the previous election applied to the new boundaries.